End Game of the Republican Primaries

trump-and-cruz 2Just a few thoughts here…

This weekend is going to be a turning point in the Republican primaries.  Basically, Marco Rubio is going to potentially select the the Republican candidate for President.  If he does not withdraw before the end of Sunday, Donald Trump will have the nomination.  If he withdraws today or over the weekend, then there is an option for Ted Cruz to be the nominee.

My rationale?

If Rubio stays in, he isn’t going to win in Florida.  Or anywhere else for that matter.  He will however, draw off enough votes from Cruz that he will lose states that he may have won in a two man race.  Trump, however, will win enough that he at least have the plurality if not majority.  If Trump has a majority or a solid plurality I wouldn’t be surprised if Cruz threw his support behind Trump.  If Trump and Cruz are close, as they are now, you may see Cruz challenge Trump, but I don’t see that happening in a three way race.  Any way it comes out, I’m expecting to see Cruz as Trump’s VP pick.

If Rubio gets out, then we have a new race.  The momentum favors Trump, but Cruz is actually not very far behind.  There is a 100 delegate difference between Trump and Cruz, 459 to 360 respectively.  Rubio is a mere 152 in a distant 3rd and John Kasich is irrelevant.  In this scenario, if there is not a clear majority and a second vote takes place, expect to see either Cruz or Trump yield and support the other.  I’m not sure how that will turn out, but do not forget that private meeting between Trump and Cruz last year.  Only a fool would think that there wasn’t a deal made and that it’s not still in effect.

Any other outcome besides these two will be the end of the Republican Party.  The base has no more patience with the leadership.

So Marco?  The choice is yours?  How does the Republican Political Class’ power end.  You have created your own lose-lose situation.

This entry was posted in Current News, Politics and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *