The special election in GA-06 is finally happening to the ograsmic delight of political wonks across the nation. All I can say is, thank God it’s about over. I’m still sitting here scratching my head about it, though, as I have been for the last couple months.
You see, for some reason it has been defined as the principal indicator for the Trump administration and the predictor for the 2018 congressional elections. Specifically, if the Republicans lose this seat, it is definitive proof that a) there is no support for Trump, and b) Republicans are going to get wiped out in 2018.
What this is proof of, actually, is that you should not let your enemies define success. Or in this case, redefine success. Repeatedly. Until they finally have a chance of winning.
If you remember the original case, it was the definitive election back at the primary earlier this year. If the Republicans lost that, then their governance was defined by the Left to be “over.” Never mind that there was one Democrat and a dozen Republicans running. Stacking the deck for these predictions has never been a problem for the Left.
Except Ossoff failed.
That wasn’t what was supposed to happen. So the goal posts have been moved repeatedly. First Kansas, then Montana At one point the desperation was such that the press had been reduced to trying to claim the single Democrat special election victory of a State Legislature seat in a divided state as the Victory, but even their allies rolled their eyes over it.
So now we come full circle. GA-06 is once again the election that Republicans must win or it’s over.
Except that this is one of the biggest crocks of donkey dung to come out of the Left since “If you like your health care plan, you can keep it.” The simple truth is that this election has far more impact for Democrats that Republicans. Why? I’m glad you asked. Let’s see;
- The district is an extremely Anti-Trump district. He barely beat Hillary there.
- It may be a Republican district, but it has trended more purple over the years.
- Ossoff has been running as a centrist, if not right of center in a carefully orchestrated campaign.
- There is nothing to excite voters about Handel. Sorry, that’s the truth. Nothing bad, but there isn’t anything to get excited about, either.
- Ossoff has out-spent Handel roughly $24 million to $4.5 million. And that doesn’t even account for the millions spent by outside groups.
- The Democratic Party has poured unprecedented resources into it. They are the ones acting like it is a “must win,” not the Republicans.
- Tom Price, who left this seat for a position in the administration has just finally went down to campaign for her over this last weekend. Not exactly a huge effort by the NRCC, eh?
- The Press has been throwing its full support behind Ossoff.
- Hollowood and the entertainment industry has thrown its full support behind Ossoff and has been visibly active in the campaign.
The biggest problem for Ossoff is a perception of him as a “carpet bagger,” and this will certainly be used as the excuse should he lose. However, since it is more a technicality than anything, I think that is more of a national perception than a local one.
In short, this is a seat that should be winnable for the Democrat. With the amount of effort and money poured into it both within GA and throughout the country, it should be one they have confidence in winning. Yet that has not been the case.
Going into the election, the polls are tied, in spite of Democrat efforts. This is a Bad Thing™ because the Democrats have made such a big case for this being a “must win” for Republicans, that it has instead become a “cannot lose” for them. This is especially true in consideration of the extreme disparity in effort made by the respective Parties.
The only way this can be a warning to Republicans would be if Ossoff were to win well outside the margin of error. Even then, the warning is going to be more towards congressional Republicans than to Mr. Trump. Voters are getting very tired of Republicans being sent to D.C. and abandoning their promises to constituents. We are not going to “just vote then go away” any more.
On the other hand, if Ossoff loses or only wins by a narrow margin, within error, the message is far more telling to the Democrats. Its will be another is a steady string of repudiation and even the old tactic of pretending to be centrist or Right-leaning is being seen through. I am expecting this to be the more likely result of this election for all the reasons above.
My other predictions? Should I prove right, expect this story to get buried. Not a difficult prediction, of course. Watch for the excuses to become increasingly lame. I’m really not sure where they can move the goalposts next. Sadly, expect the Democratic vitriol to significantly increase. If this election turns out the way I expect, it will be all they have left.